News

Aluminum prices encountered a small problem, but the market is a blockbuster positive, and the situation is improving.

1. The impact of the typhoon, pushed up the domestic spot aluminum prices, now the impact is fading

The domestic spot aluminum price rebounded from the low to 14000 points above, mainly because of the typhoon affected zouping area, the market rumor weiqiao affected production of 1.05 million tons. From the current situation, the impact of the typhoon is fading, the domestic aluminum prices may fall next!

2. Poor consumption in the first half year depressed aluminium prices

According to the national bureau of statistics, in June 2019, the country produced 4.333 million tons of aluminum, down 3.0 percent year on year. In the first six months of this year, the country produced 23.373 million tons of aluminum, down 0.5 percent year on year.

Production reduction is due to lower demand, domestic spot aluminum prices experienced may - July staged fall.

3. Market rumors, National Day parade will trigger production restrictions

There is a rumor in the market that an enterprise has sent a letter saying that all production enterprises north of the Yellow River may stop production and reduce emissions from September 1 to ensure blue skies and white clouds during the National Day parade.

This year marks the 70th anniversary of National Day. If you refer to the grand parade held in the capital Beijing to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese people's war of resistance against Japanese aggression and the world anti-fascist war, Beijing and six surrounding provinces and cities have limited production.

But at present has not seen the official document, but if the production limit policy implementation, domestic aluminum prices are likely to rise.

4. Economic environment is not conducive to the emergence of frequent positive

These days, for example, central Banks typically cut lending rates to stimulate manufacturing. In addition, the government supports shenzhen in building a pilot demonstration zone of socialism with Chinese characteristics. The state hopes that one place will become a highlight and drive the whole process.

While these positive signs have a long way to go, in the short term they will help restore confidence, which in turn will help risk asset prices rebound.

5. Alumina prices are likely to stabilize at low levels

The average price of alumina in China has fallen back to around 2500 yuan per ton. When the bauxite price is relatively stable, the price of alumina has little downward space. Aluminum prices have resisted downward pressure on alumina prices, and if alumina prices stabilize, it will also be good news for aluminum prices.

6. Inventories are not putting pressure on aluminum prices

Recently, the domestic aluminum ingots inventory is in a downward trend, the aluminum rod inventory is relatively low, the exchange inventory is also in a large downward trend, the inventory did not bring strong pressure on the aluminum price. 

Finally, if the market continues to have good news, aluminum prices are expected to extend the rise. Domestic spot aluminium price is affected by domestic policy, which deserves our attention.

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