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Expectations that Russia will lift taxes on aluminum exports and boost global supply have boosted inventory sales, which has pushed down metal prices in the physical markets of Europe and the United States.

As the stockpile of aluminum, estimated at about 1 million tonnes in Europe and half a million tonnes in the United States, accelerate, prices are likely to fall further.

Russia is not expected to renew the 15% export tax, or at least $254 per tonne, on basic aluminum exports between August and December when it decides to abolish duties on aluminum-based compounds.

Russell, the world’s largest aluminum supplier outside China, is taxed, accounting for 6% of global aluminum supplies last year, at an estimated 65 million tonnes. ‘Premiums are incredibly high. If you have stock, this is a chance to make a profit, ‘said Oliver Newgent, a Citi analyst.

‘The European premium is the most exposed.’ Consumers who buy aluminum on the physical market pay a premium in addition to the benchmark price (CMAL3) on the London Metal Exchange (LME), which includes transport and handling costs and duties.